Ask Me

Hi,

You are welcome to ask me any question you have regarding my blog or investments.

Also, if you want any particular stock to be analyzed/valued, please let me know, I would be glad to do my bit to help you out.

I shall use this page as a help forum. Kindly enter your queries as comments.

22 comments:

  1. amreshJuly 24, 2011 at 9:49 AM

    I got stuck in Mercator Lines 1000 shares @ 50 around. How do you perceive this shipping and coal investing company. Books dont appeal. Can You suggest should I hold or switch. Get me out of TRAP.
    amreyby@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Millennial IndianJuly 25, 2011 at 1:26 AM

    Hi Amresh,

    Personally I stay away from shipping stocks. I saw the books of the company and they are not good for the past two years. Their profits have gone down and suffered a loss if we consider standalone business. As the downfall happened over 2 years, i feel it is not a one off event.

    Another important factor that seems to be bad about them is their negative operational cash flow.

    Apart from this, they have a lot of debt, and if their cash flow condition persists, it may be a problem.

    The only bright sign is their coal business. The PBT from their coal business has increased from 6 to 96 crores. Otherwise, the contribution of shipping/offshore has gone down.

    My personal suggestion would be to exit the scrip. Maybe wait till the Q1 results and then exit. I feel the Q1 results might be a bit better than the past 2 quarters, and this may push the stock above 40. But for a long term get out of shipping.

    [I assume you have a medium risk appetite]

    ReplyDelete
  3. HoneyFebruary 21, 2012 at 1:34 PM

    can you please provide me the valuation of parabolic drugs as you have done in Biocon..

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Millennial IndianFebruary 21, 2012 at 1:50 PM

    @Honey: Pls give me a couple of days. I will post it as soon as I make it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HoneyFebruary 21, 2012 at 2:46 PM

      thanks

      Delete
    2. HoneyFebruary 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

      sorry to interrupt you... Just want to ask that Parabolic Drugs Valuation Excel sheet I need... Can you please provide me?

      Delete
  5. HoneyFebruary 22, 2012 at 11:20 AM

    change in sales
    why do you calculate ------------------------------ ?
    change in Capital employed

    ReplyDelete
  6. HoneyFebruary 22, 2012 at 11:22 AM

    why do you calculate change in sales/change in Capital employed?

    ReplyDelete
  7. The Millennial IndianFebruary 22, 2012 at 3:04 PM

    For valuing a company, one of the methods is to value based upon the present value of the cash that the company will get in the future.

    Now for any company, in order to increase revenues, they have to invest in some aspect of the business - be it sales/marketing or machinery etc. So, there is an outflow of cash because of this.

    Now, while valuing, sales are generally estimated at some expected growth rate. But at the same time there would be investments. In order to estimate this investment I use the historical ratio of change in capital employed (additional investments) per change in sales (the additional sales generated).

    Hope this helps :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HoneyFebruary 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM

      Thank You... this helped me.. and I am anxiously waiting for the Parabolic Drugs valuation Excel sheet

      Delete
  8. HoneyMarch 2, 2012 at 9:52 AM

    sorry to interrupt you... Just want to ask that Parabolic Drugs Valuation Excel sheet I need... Can you please provide me?

    ReplyDelete
  9. The Millennial IndianMarch 7, 2012 at 5:49 PM

    Hi,

    Sorry for the delay, was traveling last week. Please find the valuation sheet for Parabolic Drugs at the following link:

    https://sites.google.com/site/saumitraambegaokar/home/parabolic-drugs-valuation

    You can toy around with the assumptions to determine various scenarios.

    I will also try to post an explanation soon...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HoneyMarch 9, 2012 at 10:07 AM

      Thanks a lot.... I will wait for the explanation..
      It really helped..

      Delete
  10. HoneyMarch 22, 2012 at 3:41 PM

    Can I do SOTP valuation in Parabolic durgs limited? If Yes.. Can You please explain me this...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Millennial IndianMarch 31, 2012 at 5:57 PM

      Yes, you can do SOTP valuation for this if you want. SOTP is sum-of-the-parts, and hence you have to identify various coherent business units (SBUs) of Parabolic Drugs. Each of these parts needs to be valuated using an appropriate valuation method (DCF, multiples, option pricing etc.)

      As much as I can see, there are three broad business units of Parabolic drugs, namely, API business, CRAMS (contract research and Manufacturing services) and R&D.

      For CRAMS and API, you can apply DCF. For this, you need to estimate future cash flows of the respective businesses. For R&D business, you can apply option pricing model by identifying various molecules in research phase, there potential values as molecules, probability of their success and the time for them to come to the market.

      Hope that is of help to you.

      [Pardon me for not replying earlier as I was out on vacation.]

      Delete
  11. HoneyApril 2, 2012 at 9:51 AM

    thank you for replying. How can I do this option pricing model? I mean, except the success ration of their research, what else I need in the model to calculate it. Do you have any sample model of option pricing. If you have.... Can you please share with me...
    Thanks..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Millennial IndianApril 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

      You can refer the following for Black-Scholes model for option pricing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Scholes

      You will have to adapt the model for drugs/molecule instead of stock. I will try and write some article on the same, but cannot be certain how soon.

      Delete
  12. HoneyApril 5, 2012 at 12:09 PM

    Why in the parabolic drugs valuation excel, you have calculated sales to capital ratio as 1.00.
    I mean that what is the impact of sales to capital ratio..
    can you expand this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HoneyJune 4, 2012 at 10:17 AM

      i m sorry to disturb you but u didn't reply me long...
      as u said u will give extra details on parabolic drugs..
      Sorry if I disturbed you or bothered you

      Delete
    2. The Millennial IndianJune 6, 2012 at 12:17 AM

      Sorry for not posting. I started my job last month, so not get good deal of time to do the needful.

      Delete
  13. HoneyJune 6, 2012 at 12:53 PM

    do you have any analysis on wockpharma?

    ReplyDelete

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